Red Light for Green Party

Why would a Canadian green voter vote Green?

Yep, that’s me beside Green icon Elizabeth May - one of my longtime eco-heroes. I have been approached to run for the Greens federally and provincially. In 2019, I worked for the Green Party of Canada. Elizabeth wrote a lovely blurb for my kid’s book about orcas. I am a long-time fan of her, her ideals and her accomplishments. I live in her riding. And when I make my X on April 28th, for the first time since I’ve lived here, it won’t be for her. Here’s why…

Red Light for the Green Party

When the people of Saanich-Gulf Islands elected Elizabeth May for the first time in 2011, the historic vote wasn’t just about sending Canada’s first Green MP to Ottawa, it was about changing the country’s political climate.

In 2015 and 2019, when I was one of the voters in S-GI lucky enough to mark an X for Elizabeth, a vote for her felt like a vote for a Green revolution.

In 2025, voting for Elizabeth feels like a vote for nostalgia in a world where – as the Green Party is usually the first to point out – the future is at stake. Or as a fundraising letter I received from her co-leader, Jonathan Pedneault declares, “later is too late.”

Last year, Greens worldwide pleaded with US Green leader and JFK-Junior-wanna-be, Jill Stein, to drop out of the Presidential race. One of those Greens was Elizabeth May. So now Canadians are in an election that’s about fighting Trump’s Mini-Me (Pierre Poilievre’s answer to how he’s not Canada’s Trump is that he weighs less?) and the political calculus here is different because?

Not to suggest hypocrisy, irony or partisan blinders, but what happens if Canada elects the guy running the Trump-lite campaign who was and still is hoping to storm Ottawa by attacking anything resembling a climate policy? Oh and saving single-use plastic… because as every environmentally-conscious voter knows, what the world needs most is more plastic.

Based on the polls, the Liberals and Tories are the only parties in play, the NDP is on the verge of vanishing, the Bloc is on the rocks and the existence of the Greens is technically within the margin of error.

Meanwhile, the Green Party of Canada keeps proving that it isn’t a party. It’s a multimillion-dollar never-ending ad campaign that runs candidates across the country so that the Greens qualify for four hours on the federal debate stage every four years.

It would cost less - and have more political impact - to produce an Elizabeth May movie-of-the week and run it on CBC Gem. And this year the Greens didn’t qualify for the debates because they only managed to field candidates in two-thirds of Canada’s ridings, despite allowing high school students, first-year university students and a guy campaigning for the Tories to run under their banner.

Jonathan Pedneault claimed the Greens dropped out in 15 ridings where they might play spoiler and help elect Tories. Green supporters boasted about this honourable Canada-first move online. But after this claim was cited by the debate commission as justification for knocking them off the stage, Elizabeth swore that the party had done no such honourable thing.

So, apparently, after Elizabeth anointed Jonathan co-leader and heir-apparent, the two stopped talking to each other? This co-leadership experiment suddenly started looking like almost as stellar a success story as Elizabeth’s last anointed successor, Trivial Pursuits answer Annamie Paul.

Whichever co-leader is telling the truth, the reality is that Green candidates don’t run to win Green seats. Other than Elizabeth, there have been exactly three Greens elected to Parliament since her breakthrough four elections ago – none of whom was elected for the first time in a regular federal election - on purpose.

So how do Greens get their seats?

Nanaimo’s Paul Manly Jr. was originally elected in a meaningless byelection in the summer of 2019 that was overshadowed by an extremely consequential provincial byelection (where BC’s balance of power was on the line).

Paul was running in a riding that had been repped by his dad, Paul Manly Senior, for the NDP - so that’s tough to beat for name recognition. FYI If you Google stories about that historic win, you are likely to find Paul waving a sign alongside a bunch of other keen Greens, including me.

A few months later, Paul held his new seat in the 2019 general election and he and Elizabeth were joined by a shiny new Green from New Brunswick.

Jenica Atwin was elected in a three-way split in her riding. Instead of becoming the new face of the party, the young bilingual MP - their first MP from beyond BC - defected to the Liberals during the brief, dysfunctional reign of Annamie Paul.

In 2021, Kitchener’s Mike Morrice was lucky enough to be on the ballot in a traditionally Liberal riding when the Liberal candidate dropped out of the campaign over accusations of sexual harassment. Since the ballots were already printed, local Liberals endorsed Mike. So Ontario’s original and only Green MP was elected as the defacto Liberal candidate.

Since he’ll be running against a real Liberal candidate this election - as opposed to a leftover name on a ballot - it strikes me as bizarre and/or lazy that poll aggregators are predicting he’s on track to be elected (the only Green they currently have decent odds on) based on their standard incumbent boost and low polling numbers for Liberals from an election where Liberals didn’t run.

This was pretty much the same way former BC Green leader Sonia Furstenau was first elected. NDP in-fighting steered party members away from their official candidate and towards her. In the following election, when the NDP ran a real candidate and campaign - Sonia, who now had the boosts that come with being both the incumbent and party leader - barely held the seat.

No wonder Elizabeth has consistently wooed MPs from other parties to convince them to cross the floor. In our electoral system – which ain’t changing - it’s much easier than trying to get a Green elected.

When Annamie ran in a byelection during the pandemic, Elizabeth cited - and misrepresented - the parliamentary “tradition” of “leader’s privilege” and urged other candidates to drop out of the race to gift her successor the traditionally Liberal seat. The Liberals passed on that idea and won in a predictable landslide.

When the Greens set out to replace Annamie in 2022, Mike Morrice did not run for the job. You’d think an Ontario MP would be the obvious choice to become the new leader or co-leader - if only to keep a foothold in Ontario (aka the province with most of the seats) and, just maybe, the seat he’d lucked into - but nope, that would be playing like a real political party.

“The dream is dead”

During that race Party President and long-time Indigenous Affairs critic, Loraine Rekmans resigned, declaring “the dream is dead.” Her scathing three-page letter warned: “It seems to me there is no vision for a better future… but only an effort to look back and settle old scores, while the planet burns.” So if you think anything I’m writing here is too harsh - or not harsh enough - you really oughta check out that letter.

The skills that made Elizabeth the perfect person to create the party are not the skills needed to hold a party together or build it - which is why, when she decided to reclaim her crown as Queen Green, so many long-time true believers made the same decision Loraine did. They were just quieter about it.

Maybe I missed someone when I scoped the candidate’s list, but as far as I can tell only one of the ten failed former leadership candidates for the party from 2020 and 2022 is running for them this election. Oh, also the guy with the funky hat who was kicked out of the 2020 leadership race after another candidate accused him of being “super racist.” He’s running. And so is his funky hat.

Leadership contenders are usually the past, present and future stars of a political party and only one of ten was okay with being on the ballot now that Elizabeth is back as leader? ‘though, to be fair, maybe the others were all on the list of 100-plus candidates who couldn’t manage to find 100 people willing to sign their paperwork so they could run.

It took polls showing he’s likely losing his own seat, but NDP leader Jagmeet Singh finally stopped pretending he’s running for Prime Minister. Meanwhile, the campaign email blasts I’m getting from the Greens - and the ad I’m seeing every time I watch a show online - makes it look like Jonathan Pedneault thinks he is.

And this is the “evidence-based” party?

Where’s Mike?

And I keep wondering if Mike Morrice is secretly a green vegetable because, if he has more charisma than a celery stick, I don’t understand why the guy pollsters have pegged as likely to be the last Green standing isn’t featured in all the party’s national ads or at least all the national e-blasts (though he is spending serious coin to show up online in Kitchener). Also, asking for a friend - the party paid Oracle to do polls for Elizabeth and Paul… where’s Mike’s poll?

And why isn’t Mike being teed up as the potential future face of the party since he’s the only Green from outside BC who looks to have a serious shot at a seat? And, ya know, some national PR might help him hold that seat?

Maybe because he’s not joined at the hip to Elizabeth?

So let’s keep that spotlight on the co-leader who is as likely to win a seat in Montreal as you are! I’m taking a swing here and guessing the Liberal candidate for Outremont will be too busy to read this until after the campaign.

If the party is more than The Elizabeth May Show, with this election’s special guest star Jonathan Pedneault, where’s Mike Morrice?

Last week Globe and Mail columnist, Marsha Lederman (who I kind of adore) wrote an op-ed that “Canada Needs a Strong Green Party.”

I passionately agree with her sentiment, just not her capitalization - because the Green Party is not built to elect green politicians. The Liberals, the NDP and even the Tories are, can and do.

Marsha wrote that “the Green voice is essential.”

Now that I’ve seen how the vegan sausage is made, I don't believe that Green voice she’s yearning for is real. But green voices are.

And, hell, yes, they need to be nominated, elected and amplified.

There is no party, there is no movement, there is only Elizabeth

Since 2019, Elizabeth has lobbied to become Speaker of the House of Commons.

It’s an ideal role for a non-aligned elder statesperson. It’s also a role that means she wouldn’t be leading Greens in Parliament or focusing on Saanich-Gulf Islands.

Since her fellow MPs keep passing on her for that position, I believe there’s a better role for her in government and that whoever is elected to run the country would have a tough time finding a more passionate, hard-working, better-informed or deserving Canadian to appoint to the Senate.

The election signs I’m seeing in Saanich-Gulf Islands say “Canada needs Elizabeth May. “ Yep, I agree.

What Canada no longer needs is a Green party that doesn’t have a plan for electing enough MPs to fill a Tesla that does not require praying for lightning to strike their opponents and/or electoral reform. And if we’re placing bets, I suspect PlayNow Sports would offer better odds on a couple of quick lightning strikes than on a Canadian government suddenly going all in on proportional representation.

Also, “Senator May” has a great ring to it.

If that doesn’t work then, since the party already has tax-deductible status, transform the Greens from an alleged political party into an actual environmental NGO (the Elizabeth May Foundation?) and advocate for issues party supporters care about, which likely won’t include a “costed” health care plan.

For the last four elections, the voters of Saanich-Gulf Islands – including me - tried to make the Green party happen. That has gone about as well as the wanna-be in Mean Girls who tried to make “fetch” happen.

When all the ballots are counted and recounted, it’s possible Elizabeth will be reelected. Heck, since dreamers gotta dream and voters gotta vote, it’s possible another Green or two may join her in Ottawa as the result of a three or four-way split and/or the last-second implosion of a Liberal or NDP candidate who can’t be booted off the ballot.

Then what?

It’s more likely that just as Elizabeth was the first Green MP elected in Canada that, if she holds her seat on April 28th, she will also be the last one… likely ending her tenure one day by urging the voters of SG-I to elect her chosen successor, citing “leader’s privilege” in the hopes that the party will hold the riding the only way they could with any candidate but her… by running unopposed.

That’s not the miracle S-GI voted for in 2011, 2015, 2019 or 2021. And it’s not something I’m prepared to vote for in 2025.

P.S. But strategic voting…

I didn’t want to get into this because I’ve already called out the Greens over deceptive polling data, but since I know that for most people left of Tory this is THE issue on Monday… Wednesday night I was at an all-candidates-minus-the-Tory-meeting (aka a Canadian all-candidate’s meeting in the Poilievre era) and Elizabeth ended her closing statement by proclaiming that Cooperate for Canada had declared her the best hope to beat back the Tory hordes. “It really is the case - and it’s now confirmed by Cooperate from Canada - that a vote for either Colin (Plant - NDP) or David (Beckham - Liberal) is going to assist Cathie (Ounsted - Conservative).”

Um… no….

Cooperate for Canada did NOT say Elizabeth was the only candidate who could beat the Tories. This is from Cooperate’s mission statement: “We believe a diversity of political voices are better for democracy.” So when Cooperaters endorse someone their priority is NOT who has the best chance to defeat the Tories, it’s making sure they’ve done what they can to defeat the Tories AND keep the Greens and NDP alive and in a position to hold the balance of power. So they’ve backed Greens in any riding where the Greens have a pulse and a few where they don’t.

Meanwhile, the Green party is coming at the NDP and Progressivevote.ca for “Misrepresentation Of Voting Data Results.” Um… cool.

I gather that exactly two ridings on Vancouver Island have recent, non-partisan, legit polling - North Island Powell River and Cowichan Langford. Everything else being thrown around on the Island to convince you that you have to cast your X for Candidate X is based on overall trends, out-of-date data and the pollster’s secret sauce.

I’ve seen Greens flash 338 snapshots showing Greens in SG-I and Nanaimo-Ladysmith as the only hope to stop the Tories - which looks like what 338 shows unless, ya know, you read the words next to that pretty green bar graph.

The catch… aside from that pesky “+ or - 8” (which means they could just as easily be trailing the Liberals by a fair margin) which is one helluva catch, the company that does CBC’s Polltracker is showing a different scenario for anyone wanting to tank the Tories in the two Vancouver Island ridings the Greens are gunning for.

CBC’s pollster, Éric Grenier, shares riding data on his great site, The Writ and has the incumbent NDP MP in Nanaimo-Ladysmith looking like the “strategic” vote. In Elizabeth’s riding, the same breakdown shows the Liberals and Greens in a fight to the finish, with Tories listed as “possible.” I apologize for snapshotting from behind a paywall, but these are from April 23rd, so if you want the current info please pay to check it out here.

So if you’re basing your SG-I vote on 338 and your goal is to stop the Tories, the Liberals are at least as likely to do the job as the Greens. If you trust CBC’s Polltracker, the choice is between the Liberals and the Greens with the Tories in third.

Grenier who runs Polltracker and Philippe J. Fournier who runs 338, cohost a podcast called The Numbers and in their last episode before voting day said they expect only one Green to win - Kitchener’s Mike Morrice.

WTF?

And all these projections and predictions mean… who knows. The other night I was shocked when I was checking BC election coverage and found pundits referring to SG-I as “a four-way race” with the NDP still in play.

One analyst refers to Vancouver Island as “Narnia” ‘cause we don’t follow the same rules as the rest of the country. And pollsters without local data don’t quite know what to do with candidates who have local star status like the NDP’s Colin Plant, who has topped polls as a Saanich councillor. So Colin is running as an NDPer, but has a better brand than his party.

Because… irony… This kind of split that may end Elizabeth’s tenure as MP is exactly the same scenario that repeatedly elected Conservative/Reform/Alliance/whatever Gary Lunn in SG-I back before Elizabeth arrived in BC, when it was the Greens demonizing strategic voting and pleading with everyone to vote their conscience - even in an election where one of BC’s greenest voices (and former Green star) Briony Penn was running as a Liberal in SG-I for the greenest Candidate for PM Canada has even seen, Stéphane Dion. So, not for the first time and certainly not for the last, a Green candidate helped defeat a greener candidate.

Off the island, pollsters are equally flustered by Abbotsford-South Langley. 338 shows former 8 time BC MLA (BC Liberal, United etc.) Mike De Jong at 13 percent. CBC’s tracker tags him as “unlikely.” So aggregators see De Jong as a non-factor. Pundits (including me) think BC voters are contrary enough that he may take the riding.

Basically, when it comes to elections, sometimes there is local data that does not compute. So vote, eh.